Forecasting species distributions: coping with uncertainties concerning species’ evolutionary potential
Other uncertainties pertain to both types of models (correlative and
process-based): for example, despite a number of studies showing rapid
evolution in response to climate change, microevolution is not taken
into account in any of these.
Yet, we showed that in a fragmented landscape, a neutral model can lead to stable dimorphisms in the rates of dispersal, if the distribution of patch sizes is skewed enough.
We also assessed to what extent genetic correlations between traits affect the persistence of a species on a continuously shifting environmental gradient (such as a warming latitudinal gradient), and derived an estimate of the maximal rate of environmental change a species can sustain when traits are correlated.
Yet, we showed that in a fragmented landscape, a neutral model can lead to stable dimorphisms in the rates of dispersal, if the distribution of patch sizes is skewed enough.
We also assessed to what extent genetic correlations between traits affect the persistence of a species on a continuously shifting environmental gradient (such as a warming latitudinal gradient), and derived an estimate of the maximal rate of environmental change a species can sustain when traits are correlated.
