Forecasting species distributions: the role of local adaptation
All species show some quantitative variation in traits across their
range. Yet, local adaptation has so far been little considered in
projections of future distributions. However, using a process-based
model (Phenofit)
calibrated for various populations of the same tree species leads to
different geographic ranges for each of the demes. We currently
investigate this issue for the pedunculate oak Quercus robur.
Namely, are local trees always more adapted than other provenances? How
is each population projected to respond to climate
change?
Probabilities of occurrence of three genetic entities of pedunculate oak, responding differently to climatic clues, as inferred by Phenofit for present climate. The best fit to the observed distribution of this species is obtained by considering the maximal fitness of the three provenances at each point in space.
Probabilities of occurrence of three genetic entities of pedunculate oak, responding differently to climatic clues, as inferred by Phenofit for present climate. The best fit to the observed distribution of this species is obtained by considering the maximal fitness of the three provenances at each point in space.