The model Phenofit
PHENOFIT (Chuine
& Beaubien 2001; Morin & Chuine 2005) is a
process-based model which predicts the fitness (survival and
reproductive success) of temperate tree species, depending upon local
climatic conditions. Its main assumption is that a tree's surivival and
reproductive ability closely depend on the matching of phenological
events (leaf unfolding, fruit onset, leaf senescence) with local
climatic conditions. It implements the development of organs,
resistance to frost and to drought.
This model can therefore be used to provide spatially explicit projections of the evolution of species ranges. This model has to be parameterized for each species, ideally for several distant populations to take local adaptation into account, using time series of local climate and phenological traits' values. Given climatic data (or projections), the timing of phenological events, the survival, the reproductive output, and ultimately the selective value of that population (which can be interpreted as a 'probability of occurrence’) can be computed over a large spatial scale.
Using climatic scenarios, PHENOFIT (in line with other models) shows that the distributions of most European trees should shift northwards in the next century, and considerably contract.
Projection
of the probability of occurrence of pedunculate oak across Europe in
2100 (scenario A1Fi), as computed with PHENOFIT. While pedunculate
oak is predicted to disappear from all light green regions, its
establishment in the newly suitable habitats (dark blue) will depend
upon its dispersal abilities, and also on whether these regions will be
devoid of competitors.
This model can therefore be used to provide spatially explicit projections of the evolution of species ranges. This model has to be parameterized for each species, ideally for several distant populations to take local adaptation into account, using time series of local climate and phenological traits' values. Given climatic data (or projections), the timing of phenological events, the survival, the reproductive output, and ultimately the selective value of that population (which can be interpreted as a 'probability of occurrence’) can be computed over a large spatial scale.
Using climatic scenarios, PHENOFIT (in line with other models) shows that the distributions of most European trees should shift northwards in the next century, and considerably contract.
Projection
of the probability of occurrence of pedunculate oak across Europe in
2100 (scenario A1Fi), as computed with PHENOFIT. While pedunculate
oak is predicted to disappear from all light green regions, its
establishment in the newly suitable habitats (dark blue) will depend
upon its dispersal abilities, and also on whether these regions will be
devoid of competitors.