Forecasting species distributions: the role of phenotypic plasticity
Phenotypic plasticity (i.e.
the ability of a given genotype to express different phenotypes across
years or locations) is often seen as an alternative to microevolution
for slowly-evolving species to cope with climate change. However,
whether phenotypic plasticity indeed leads to larger ecological niches
or to wider geographic ranges is unclear. To address this issue, we
conducted a virtual experiment: using the model Phenofit,
we artificially removed the inter-annual and/or inter-location
plasticity in three tree species. We showed that phenotypic plasticity
is not always adaptive; and when it is, it mostly acts in a very
marginal area of the distribution (and of the ecological niche).